臺灣男女初婚率之空間分析

Abstract

本研究以「社會經濟結構調整」與「創新擴散理論」為理論基礎，並結合空間自相關分析，探討臺灣地區男女初婚率的空間聚集分布特徵。過去二十年，熱區主要集中在經濟發展快速區域，如新竹、桃園及臺中，而南部科學園區近年也成為男性初婚率之熱區，顯示區域經濟發展與婚姻行為密切相關。反觀西南部平原則因人口外移與經濟落後，導致初婚率偏低，呈現男性初婚率冷區。東部地區則由於性別比高，使男性初婚率呈現冷區，女性出現熱區。空間自相關結果顯示初婚率具空間相依性，婚姻行為易受鄰近地區影響，符合「創新擴散理論」的觀點。進一步運用空間遲滯模型（SLM）與多尺度地理加權迴歸（MGWR）分析影響因素，性別結構（特別是25–44歲女性比例）對男女初婚率的正向影響最為強烈，顯示在多數地區性別比大於100的情況下，適婚女性的選擇對於男女初婚率具顯著的影響力。而未婚性別比對男女初婚率具不同影響方向，未婚性別比提高將造成男性競爭激烈，使男性初婚率降低；女性則擁有更多擇偶機會，使踏入婚姻意願提高。傳統性別角色影響逐漸弱化，女性就業率從負向轉為正向影響，顯示時代觀念的改變；平均所得則持續正向影響初婚率，但影響力逐漸減弱。部分變項的影響方向與預期相異：房價上升對男性初婚率呈正向關聯，可能因高房價區域多屬經濟與就業機會集中的發展地帶，間接活絡婚姻市場。外籍配偶比例偏高則與較低初婚率相關，推測因此類地區多為婚配條件不佳的鄉鎮，當地婚姻市場不活絡所致。本研究建議提升初婚率策略應包括：增加兩性互動機會、強化區域經濟發展、改善就業環境及居住條件等。此外需考量各地區特性，例如北部需紓解經濟壓力，中部強化就業穩定，南部提升居住品質，東部與原住民區及都市邊緣與鄉村地區則應著重提升就業環境。整體而言，初婚行為乃區域結構與社會條件共同作用的結果，需多元政策協同推動方能有效改善。This study applies the frameworks of socioeconomic structural adjustment and innovation diffusion theory to analyze gendered spatial patterns in Taiwan’s first marriage rates. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis, marriage hot spots were identified in economically developed areas such as Hsinchu and Taoyuan, while cold spots emerged in less developed or demographically imbalanced regions like the southwest and east. These patterns reveal significant spatial dependence, suggesting regional influence on marriage behavior.Through Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), the study finds that a higher proportion of women aged 25–44 strongly increases marriage rates for both genders. High sex ratios intensify male competition and lower their marriage rates, while increasing women’s options and likelihood of marriage. The influence of traditional gender roles is weakening, as female employment now has a positive effect. Average income remains a positive but diminishing factor.Contrary to expectations, higher housing prices are positively associated with male marriage rates, likely reflecting labor concentration in high-cost areas. Additionally, a high proportion of foreign spouses correlates with lower marriage rates, potentially indicating weak local marriage markets rather than successful cross-border matching.