金正恩執政時期北韓國內外局勢對臺朝關係影響之研究（2012年至2025年）

Abstract

本研究以金正恩執政期間（2012年至2025年）北韓對臺政策的發展與邏輯為研究主題，採用第三類新古典現實主義理論，從國際結構壓力與國內中介變數的交互作用出發，分析臺朝關係的形成條件與演變動因。在美中戰略對抗加劇、北韓長期面臨國際制裁與外交孤立，以及中朝關係介於合作與互疑之間的情境下，北韓雖未與臺灣建立實質官方互動，卻展現出一種謹慎但不排斥接觸的「戰略模糊性」。研究指出，金正恩政權一方面受限於中國「一中原則」的政策底線與在經濟援助上的結構性依賴，另一方面亦面臨日益嚴峻的內部經濟壓力與尋求外交突破的戰略考量，因而對臺政策採取「非正式、低調、具彈性」的接觸策略。本研究透過理論操作，說明此種行為並非權宜之計，而是一種領導人在認知風險下的選擇性操作結果。特別是在科技技術、轉口貿易與灰色經濟空間中，臺灣對北韓仍具一定吸引力，構成有限但可觀察的互動基礎。此外，本文亦評估美國若出現政策轉向，例如川普重返白宮並有條件承認北韓擁核地位，可能導致北韓外交空間的重新排序，進而影響臺朝互動的可能性與形式。整體而言，本研究藉由第三類新古典現實主義的理論框架，對金正恩時期北韓對臺政策的戰略思維進行系統性分析，並針對未來臺朝關係的發展提供理論化解釋與政策性觀察。

This study examines North Korea’s policy toward Taiwan under the leadership of Kim Jong-un (2012-2025), employing the framework of Type III Neoclassical Realism. By analyzing the interaction between structural pressures in the international system and domestic intervening variables, the research investigates the conditions and logic behind the development of DPRK-Taiwan relations. Against the backdrop of intensifying U.S.-China strategic rivalry, prolonged international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and a Sino-North Korean relationship marked by both cooperation and mistrust, North Korea has refrained from formal engagement with Taiwan, yet maintained a cautious openness through strategic ambiguity.The findings indicate that the Kim regime, while constrained by China’s “One China Principle” and its structural economic dependency on Beijing, also faces acute internal economic pressures and strategic incentives to diversify its diplomatic options. As a result, Pyongyang adopts a non-official, discreet, and flexible approach in its interactions with Taiwan. This behavior, far from being ad hoc, reflects a calculated choice shaped by the leadership’s perception of risks and opportunities. Particularly in areas such as technology, transshipment trade, and gray-zone economic exchange, Taiwan still holds pragmatic value for North Korea, laying the groundwork for limited but observable engagement.Furthermore, this study assesses how potential shifts in U.S. policy—such as a second Trump presidency and a conditional recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status—could reconfigure Pyongyang’s diplomatic landscape and reshape the trajectory of DPRK-Taiwan relations. By applying Type III Neoclassical Realism, the research provides a systematic analysis of North Korea’s foreign policy thinking under Kim Jong-un and offers both theoretical insight and policy-oriented perspectives for understanding future dynamics in cross-strait-DPRK interactions.