基於PPM模型的城市居民首末一里出行方式轉變研究——以上海為例

Abstract

本研究以城市居民“首末一里”出行方式轉變為研究對象，基於PPM（推拉錨）模型理論框架，探討感知環境威脅、感知風險、感知易用性、成本效益與慣性等因素對居民出行方式轉變意願的影響機制。通過以上海為例的實證研究，建立結構方程模型並驗證各變數間的影響路徑與調節效應。研究結果顯示，推動因素與拉動因素對居民的出行方式轉變具有顯著正向影響，且慣性對轉變意願具有負向調節作用。本研究對理解微觀交通行為變遷、優化城市公共交通規劃與推動綠色出行具有重要參考價值。

This study focuses on the transformation of"first and last mile" travel modes among urban residents, utilizing the Push-Pull-Mooring (PPM) theoretical framework to explore the behavioral mechanisms influencing such changes. Specifically, it examines perceived environmental threat, perceived risk, perceived ease of use, cost-effectiveness, and travel habit (inertia) as core factors. Based on an empirical study in Shanghai, the research constructs and tests a structural equation model to evaluate the influence paths and moderating effectsof these variables. Findings indicate that push and pull factors significantly drive travel mode changes, while inertia serves as a negative moderator. The study offers valuable insights for understanding behavioral transitions in micro-mobility, enhancing urban transit planning, and promoting sustainable travel behaviors.