職業運動聯盟之選秀成效研究－以日本職業棒球聯盟為例

Abstract

職業運動聯盟作為代表一項運動最高競技水準的舞台，為了保持其高競爭性和流動性，人才的選拔便是相當重要的課題之一。每年的新人選秀會不但能夠為聯盟注入源源不絕的年輕天賦，更能夠讓聯盟中的球隊透過選擇適合的新秀來增進球隊的實力、提升在聯盟中的競爭力。選秀制度設計之初是為了遏止職業運動聯盟中資本雄厚的大市場球隊花大錢將檯面上所有優秀球員收入囊中，為較為小市場發展的球隊提供一個得到優秀戰力的機會。在選秀會上不只需要把握前段輪次選進公認的優秀選手，在後段輪次中挑選出可以培養的天賦也是選秀的重要工作之一，因此本研究將以全世界棒壘球排名第一 (World Baseball Softball Confederation [WBSC], 2024) 的日本，其擁有全亞洲實力最強且最具歷史規模的日本職棒作為研究對象，透過計算選手的生涯累積數據，比對其選秀時的身份背景（高中、大學、社會人）、守備位置和輪次，以觀察選秀成效。結果表明日本職棒前段輪次的新秀有較大的機率在生涯初期進入一軍獲得表現的機會，但後段輪次新秀不論是投手或野手，隨著生涯年資的累積成為頂尖球員的機率較前段輪次球員高，顯示日職球團對後段輪次球員的評估較為精確。高中生球員在生涯初期成為頂尖戰力的機率高於大學生及社會人球員，但經過球團培養及生涯年資與經驗累積後，大學生及社會人球員更能在生涯後期邁入頂尖球員的行列，顯示高中生巔峰期較短，較無法在生涯中做出穩定的貢獻。As the highest level of competition in a sport, professional sports leagues place great importance on player selection to maintain competitiveness and fluidity. The annual rookie draft not only continuously injects young talent into the league but also allows teams to enhance their strength and improve competitiveness by selecting suitable players. The draft system was originally designed to prevent wealthy, large-market teams from monopolizing top players and to offer smaller-market teams a fair opportunity to acquire talent.In the draft, it is essential not only to secure recognized talents in the early rounds but also to identify potential prospects in the later rounds. Therefore, this study focuses on Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), the strongest and most historically significant league in Asia, representing Japan—ranked No. 1 in the world by the World Baseball Softball Confederation (World Baseball Softball Confederation [WBSC], 2024). By analyzing players’ cumulative career performance and comparing it with their draft background—such as amateur status (high school, college, industrial league), position, and draft round—this study aims to examine draft outcomes.The results indicate that players selected in the early rounds of the NPB draft have a higher likelihood of reaching the first team and gaining playing opportunities early in their careers. However, late-round picks—whether pitchers or fielders—show a higher probability of becoming top players as their careers progress, suggesting that NPB teams evaluate later-round talents with greater accuracy.High school players tend to reach top performance earlier than college and industrial league players. Yet, after team development and accumulated experience, college and industrial league players are more likely to become top players in the later stages of their careers. This implies that high school players have shorter peak periods and are less likely to make sustained contributions throughout their careers.